Bradbury Place · Ooltewah, TN
101 detached lots (51' min) from BC Managing LLC (Billy McCoy) · Executed contract 7/7/26 + Second Amendment 8/20/26 · $15,436,102 · Fixed 5-phase bulk takedown · Underwriting for Robert Edmonds, built 10/12/26.
Exit if the 11/16/26 out is available. Do not proceed at the contract price.
- At the contract price the deal barely breaks even: GM 11.4% vs 25% hurdle; net profit $695,654; levered ROI 2.5% vs the 35% target.
- The lot price that earns 35% levered ROI is about $108,308/lot on average (Ph1 equivalent $103,111) vs $152,833 in the contract. That is a 29.1% cut to the contract price.
- The 11/16/26 out looks live. Hamilton County assessor records (pulled 10/12/26) still show the land owned by Smedley, HDD LLC and McDade, with no 2026 transfer. If the seller has not acquired by 11/16/26 we may terminate with EM returned (C2 §4.1). Notice must be by email and a physical method (C2 §15).
- If we miss the out and walk later without a contract out, we forfeit up to $3,137,720 EM. That is less than the modeled loss from proceeding ($695,654), but recovery after the EM is released depends on a 2nd DOT behind SouthEast Bank's loan of up to $13.1M.
Open questions (answer before 11/16/26)
- Was the EM funded? $100K due 7/10/26 and $3,037,720 due 8/11/26. Wire instructions exist (7/8/26), but there is no funding confirmation in the files. Owner: John Allen / First Choice Title.
- Has the seller acquired the land? The assessor says no as of 10/12/26, but recordings can lag. Confirm with First Choice Title (Amber James) or the Register of Deeds.
- Missing First Amendment (8/6/26). The Second Amendment references it, but it is not in SharePoint or email. It may change DD, the Continuation Notice or the deposit terms.
- Is the intercreditor signed? Has the EM been released? Release needs all four Pre-Closing Items (note + DOT, 2nd-priority loan policy, intercreditor, permits evidence). Confirm nothing was released early.
- Was a Continuation Notice sent by 8/6/26? If not, the contract auto-terminated (C2 §5.1).
Other outs
- Ph1 not closed within 18 months of seller acquisition → terminate, EM returned (C2 §16).
- Condition failures on ≥25% of a phase, uncured 30 days → terminate, EM refunded (C2 §20).
- Moratorium > 180 days → terminate (C2 §12).
- Free DD exit ended 8/6/26.
Change vs. the prior run (Oasis plans Santee/Azalea/Chancey, 2,257 sf)
| Run (2.0/mo) | GM | Levered ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Prior: contract lots, on-lot site work $40,686 | 2.4% | −13.6% |
| Prior: site work at minimum | 6.9% | −8.9% |
| Now: Cassie's plan mix & prices, pad-ready lots (site work $0) | 11.4% | 2.5% |
Market area & capture
Market area = 5-mile radius around the site, matching the Strategic Insights competitor radius (circle on the map). Hamilton County assessor deed sales, improved, ≥$300K, Oct 2025 – Sep 2026: 958 closings. 150 were in our $500–599K band. Selling 2.0/mo (24/yr) means capturing 16.0% of that band. SI's figure is a 10% capture of 235 Hamilton County new-home sales at $500–600K.
Map: site (red); 5-mi market area (blue circle); competitors (gold); everyday essentials (gray). Deed set note: all ≥$300K sales (new and resale), so this capture is conservative for new homes. MLS (GCAR Flex) is not available headless because MFA blocks it, so there is no MLS band absorption for 37363.
Closings in the 5-mi market area by price band (deeds, 12 mo)
Strategic Insights study summary (6/22/26)
- Recommended: 103 lots on 51' lots; 4 plans of 2,100–3,000 sf; base $479,990–$547,490 ("from the $470s"); options ~8% ($40K); lot premium $10K; incentive −$10K; total ~mid-$500s.
- Pace: 2.0/mo (competitive average 2.1/mo; median 1.3/mo); ~4.5-year sell-out. The builder pro forma's 3.0/mo was rejected as not achievable.
- Households: median income $115K; 37% earn $150K+, the minimum for the largest plan.
New-home competition
Read: Our weighted base of $524,891 at 2,534 sf (Cassie's 6.23.26 plan mix) sits above the competitive average base ($516,946 at 2,434 sf), on larger homes. Pratt's Farms at Creekside is next door. SI puts its pace at 1.0–1.1/mo, and deed records show only 3 closings ≥$300K in 12 months. That matches Parker's "slow direct competitor".
| Community | SI avg base | SI avg sf | SI pace | Deed closings 12 mo (≥$300K) | Median deed price | Mi from site | Their advantages vs Brown Haven |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Farms at Creekside (Pratt) | $564,100 | 2,582 | 1.1/mo | 3 (0.2/mo) | $499,000 | 0.4 | Next door (shares Ooltewah-Ringgold Rd / Mayfly Rd); open and selling now with standing specs; larger plans (2,289-3,268 sf); $30K rate buydown advertised; Apison Elementary zone. |
| Reflections (Trust Homes) | $468,033 | 2,464 | 3.7/mo | 36 (3.0/mo) | $504,650 | 0.9 | Fastest seller in the set; lower entry (from high $300s); 40-50' lots; heavy options ($56.7K avg). |
| Grantham Square (Waters Holland) | $849,391 | 2,870 | 0.5/mo | 4 (0.3/mo) | $920,500 | 1.5 | Upscale positioning; not a direct price competitor (above our band). |
| Hawks Landing (DR Horton) | $419,115 | 2,544 | 2.6/mo | 25 (2.1/mo) | $495,000 | 1.7 | National builder pricing ~$95K below our base; larger sf for the money; financing incentives. |
| Prairie Pass (DR Horton) | $452,390 | 2,393 | 1.6/mo | 42 (3.5/mo) | $410,000 | 2.7 | DR Horton price and incentives; similar sf. |
| Chastain (Empire) | $468,111 | 2,308 | New (no pace) | Not found by name in deed set | - | - | New community; $15K flex cash incentive. |
| Wildflower (Empire) | $466,625 | 2,345 | 2.9/mo | 16 (1.3/mo) | $507,064 | 3.6 | $15K flex cash; strong pace; 40-50' lots. |
| Social Circle (Empire) | $447,800 | 1,968 | 1.9/mo | Not found by name in deed set | - | - | Smallest product, lowest base; $15K flex cash. |
Base price vs square feet: competitors vs Brown Haven
Lines: Brown Haven base prices by plan; SI recommended ladder; Pratt Farms at Creekside spec list prices (prattliving.com / Trulia, 10/12/26). Points: competitor average base at average sf (SI 6/22/26).
Spec homes: list vs sold/closed (Farms at Creekside)
| Home | List | Sold / status | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2678 Firefly Field Rd (Lot 42), 2,289 sf | $499,900 | $479,900 (deed 1/8/26) | −4.0% |
| 9676 Mayfly Rd (#10), 2,730 sf | $569,900 | not closed in deed set | - |
| 2606 Firefly Field Rd (#47), 2,730 sf | $529,900 | not closed in deed set | - |
| 2667 Blue Skies Dr (#32), 3,142 sf | $674,900 | not closed in deed set | - |
| 9864 Mayfly Rd (Homesite 76), 2,568 sf | $569,000 | active (prattliving.com 10/12/26) | - |
| 9816 Mayfly Rd | $560,000 | active | - |
| 9839 Mayfly Rd | $575,000 | active | - |
| Closed: 2699 Blue Skies Dr (Lot 35) | - | $499,000 (6/15/26) | - |
| Closed: 2523 Firefly Field Rd (Lot 55) | - | $639,900 (4/23/26) | - |
There is only one matched list-to-close pair (−4.0%). We have no list history for other competitors because MLS is not available headless. Pratt advertises a $30K rate buydown on specs.
The site
Facts
- ~74.75 ac, Houston Ln / Ooltewah-Ringgold Rd. Seller's parcels per intercreditor: 160-043, -043.01/.04, -043.02/044.02, -043.03/042.01. Lot 50 (36.34 ac + home) excluded.
- ~101 SF lots, min 51'×110'. The contract governs: Parker said 100 lots / 40' product and SI said 103 / 51'.
- Finished lots: utilities at each lot boundary, pad-graded, corners staked, compaction letter (C2 §19).
- We pay: sidewalks/ADA ramps, HOA setup and all dues, entry signage, landscaping, mail kiosks, water meters and taps, erosion control and mowing after purchase, TN transfer tax and closing costs.
- Parker (10/8/26): ~10% basements; flood-prone area; product doesn't fit our MO; "too thin".
Drive times: everyday essentials
| Type | Destination | Miles | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery | Publix | 4.2 | 9 |
| Grocery | Walmart Neighborhood Market | 5.2 | 11 |
| Grocery | The Fresh Market | 5.9 | 16 |
| Hospital | Erlanger East Hospital | 7.2 | 15 |
| Hospital | Parkridge East Hospital | 10.6 | 21 |
| Pharmacy | Walgreens | 5.8 | 14 |
| Pharmacy | CVS Pharmacy | 7.3 | 15 |
| Retail | Hamilton Place | 6.4 | 13 |
| Retail | Walmart Supercenter | 7.5 | 15 |
| School | Ooltewah Middle School | 3.9 | 8 |
| School | Wolftever Creek Elementary School | 4.0 | 9 |
| School | Ooltewah High School | 6.9 | 15 |
| Urgent care | AFC Urgent Care Ooltewah TN | 5.8 | 12 |
| Urgent care | AFC Urgent Care Chattanooga TN | 6.5 | 13 |
OSRM driving routes from the site centroid; locations from OpenStreetMap/Nominatim (10/12/26). School zoning is unconfirmed: Pratt markets the adjacent community as Apison Elementary zone.
Flood: FEMA NFHL was not reachable headless, so the floodplain overlap is not verified (gap).
Financials at the contract price
ROI is levered: net profit after land interest and fees, divided by average equity invested, annualized over 79 months (Aug 2026 – Feb 2033). ROI target 35% (the company's trailing-12-month actual is 33.7%). Unlevered ROI 6.9% is shown as secondary only.
| Line | Total | Per home | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | $64,942,736 | $642,997 | Base + options (22.16%) + lot premium $2,490 − incentive $10,000 + basement on 10% of lots |
| Lots (contract) | -$15,436,102 | -$152,833 | $15,436,102 · 5 phases |
| Transfer tax + lot closing | -$107,614 | -$1,065 | 0.37% TN + $500/lot assumed |
| Community: sidewalks/ADA, entry, kiosks, HOA setup | -$418,446 | -$4,143 | Contract obligations (see drill-down) |
| On-lot site | -$1,675,489 | -$16,589 | Lots delivered pad-ready: site work/grading $0; minimal per-home items only (survey, clean, temp utilities, driveway) |
| Permits + water/sewer taps | -$408,444 | -$4,044 | $2,080 + $1,964 |
| Direct construction | -$33,616,568 | -$332,837 | $131.37/sf all-in (see build) |
| Commissions | -$3,188,688 | -$31,571 | 1.91% internal + 3% outside |
| Buyer closing costs | -$562,873 | -$5,573 | $5,573/home |
| Warranty + bonus | -$1,197,821 | -$11,860 | $2,922 + $8,938/home |
| HOA on held lots | -$659,750 | -$6,532 | $250/lot/mo (SI) |
| Property tax | -$128,484 | -$1,272 | 0.379% of lot value/yr |
| Erosion/mowing | -$106,700 | -$1,056 | $50/lot/mo assumed |
| Gross margin | $7,435,757 | $73,621 | 11.4% |
| Overhead (incremental) | -$4,438,017 | -$43,941 | $43,941/home · 6.8% of revenue |
| Operating profit | $2,997,740 | $29,681 | 4.6% |
| Land loan interest | -$2,098,168 | -$20,774 | 8.25% on finished-lot advances; peak loan $8.52M |
| Land loan fees | -$203,918 | -$2,019 | 1% unit fee + 0.35%/0.50% extensions |
| Net profit | $695,654 | $6,888 | 1.1% |
Drill-down: direct cost build (corrected Pine Ridge method; option cost counted once)
| Plan | Heated sf | Base house excl. options = $127.34 × sf − $40,171 hist. options − $11,837 terrace | BH base $/sf | Cassie base $/sf | + deal option cost (base × 22.16% × 47.85%) | = All-in (no bsmt) | All-in $/sf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan A | 2,100 | $215,406 | $102.57 | $104 | $50,886 | $266,291 | $126.81 ⚠ below $127.34 |
| Plan B | 2,400 | $253,608 | $105.67 | $102 ⚠ below BH | $54,066 | $307,674 | $128.20 |
| Plan C | 2,700 | $291,810 | $108.08 | $101 ⚠ below BH | $57,565 | $349,374 | $129.40 |
| Plan D | 3,000 | $330,012 | $110.00 | $100 ⚠ below BH | $60,957 | $390,969 | $130.32 |
Weighted all-in including basement cost ($66,287) on 10% of lots: $332,837/home, $131.37/sf on 2,534 sf. Base house is built from the Oasis Chattanooga actual ($127.34/sf all-in, n=56) less historical option and terrace cost per home, then this deal's options are added back. Plans A (2,100 sf) is slightly below $127.34/sf all-in, which is a ⚠ WARNING. ⚠ WARNING on Cassie's cost: her base $100–104/sf (all-in $109–115/sf, "assumes appx $8/SF in savings") is below BH actuals on Plans B–D; we did not use it.
Drill-down: pricing strategy (ascending sf; base prices end in ,990; basement excluded from options)
| Plan | Heated sf | Homes | Mix | Beds | Base (Cassie) | Options 22.16% | Net price (+$2,490 prem − $10K incentive) | $/sf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan A | 2,100 | 10 | 9.9% | not stated | $479,990 | $106,353 | $578,833 | $276 |
| Plan B | 2,400 | 46 | 45.5% | not stated | $509,990 | $113,000 | $615,480 | $256 |
| Plan C | 2,700 | 35 | 34.7% | not stated | $542,990 | $120,312 | $655,792 | $243 |
| Plan D | 3,000 | 10 | 9.9% | not stated | $574,990 | $127,403 | $694,883 | $232 |
Plan mix, square footage and base prices are Cassie Dill's (Underwriting Model 6.23.26, SharePoint › 03. Under Contract - In Diligence › Bradbury Place - Chattanooga › 01. Underwriting; House Price Worksheet). The 6.23.26 (Grasslake Capital) variant has the same plans and prices; it only adds empty "Land Bank" / "Deposit Reimbursement" headers. Her file gives a mix of 10/45/35/10% but no counts, so counts on 101 lots are derived (10/46/35/10). Her plans are generic "Plan A–D": beds and widths are not stated, so we cannot confirm there are no 2-bed plans. No existing BH plan of 2,100–3,000 sf fits a 51' lot. All base prices end in ,990. We kept BH options (22.16% vs her 8%), lot premium ($2,490 vs her $10K) and the −$10K incentive (same as hers).
Drill-down: contract obligations, site, overhead
| Item | Total | Per lot | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sidewalks + ADA ramps (total $) | $296,946 | $2,940 | ESTIMATE: 101 lots x 51 ft frontage x 1.15 common-area factor = 5,924 LF x 5 ft wide x $8.00/sf (4" concrete, ASSUMED unit cost) + 24 ADA ramps x $2,500 (ASSUMED). No bid. Spread pro rata by phase at takedown. Price cut received: $2,500/lot = $252,500. |
| Entry signage + landscaping ($) | $75,000 | $743 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (C2 §18 obligation; no estimate in files). At Ph1. |
| Mail kiosks ($) | $31,500 | $312 | ASSUMPTION: 7 CBU units (16 boxes each for 101 lots + excluded homesite) x $4,500 installed incl. pad. At Ph1. |
| HOA declaration / setup legal ($) | $15,000 | $149 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (C2 §17). At Ph1. |
Sidewalk estimate $296,946 vs the $252,500 price cut: net $44,446. No bid yet.
| On-lot site category | $/home |
|---|---|
| Site analysis / survey | $4,906 |
| Bldg/site clean | $3,976 |
| Temp utilities | $1,712 |
| Driveway (short, subdivision lot) | $5,995 |
| Site work / fine grade: $0, lots delivered pad-ready (finished lots per contract) | $0 |
| Total | $16,589 |
Overhead (Pine Ridge corrected incremental): $24,955/home at closing (supervision + sales payroll) + division community pool $351,385/yr × (24 homes/yr ÷ 22.7 estimated Chattanooga closings/yr) = $30,929/mo from Ph1 to last closing. Total $43,941/home, 6.8% of revenue. Flag: we need John Allen's real 12-month Chattanooga closing count.
Takedown schedule (fixed, regardless of sales)
| Phase | Lots | $/lot | Modeled closing | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ph1 | 35 | $145,500 | Jan 2028 | $5,092,500 |
| Ph2 | 17 | $149,940 | Jul 2028 | $2,548,980 |
| Ph3 | 17 | $154,513 | Jan 2029 | $2,626,721 |
| Ph4 | 17 | $159,223 | Jul 2029 | $2,706,791 |
| Ph5 | 15 | $164,074 | Jan 2030 | $2,461,110 |
Ph1 is modeled Jan 2028 (Parker's Q4-2027/Q1-2028 estimate); later phases follow every 6 months. Each lot is financed on the Avila finished-lot advance (min of 80% LTC / 75% LTV, capped at cash due after the $31,066 EM credit); interest is 8.25%, with a 1% unit fee and extension fees at 12 and 18 months. Sales open 2 months after Ph1 at 2.0/mo, with a 4-month sale-to-start and 5-month build. Peak held-but-unstarted lots: 63. Lots held >24 months (Avila max term, info only): 68. Months above the $5.25M finished-lot sublimit (info only): 33.
Equity and land-loan balance by month
Sensitivity: pace (takedown is fixed) and key assumptions
| Scenario | GM | Net profit | Levered ROI | Unlevered ROI | Peak equity | Months | Lot price for 35% ROI (avg/lot) | Lot price for 25% GM | Lots held >24 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace 1.5/mo | 11.0% | -$224,615 | -0.7% | 5.1% | $6.42M | 96 | $100,618 | $64,020 | 80 |
| SI pace 2.0/mo (base) | 11.4% | $695,654 | 2.5% | 6.9% | $6.87M | 79 | $108,308 | $66,740 | 68 |
| Pace 2.5/mo | 11.7% | $1.18M | 4.8% | 8.4% | $7.42M | 69 | $112,221 | $68,316 | 18 |
The lot-price solve scales all 5 phase prices proportionally and keeps the EM and $31,066/lot credit. Faster pace shortens the project but cannot rescue the margin.
All inputs with sources
| Input | Value | Source / basis | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lots per phase | [35, 17, 17, 17, 15] | C3 Second Amendment §3(b); C2 §6(a)-(e). Ph5 "~15 (remaining)" -> 15 so total = ~101 per contract §1. | Ph5 count adjusts to final plat |
| Lot price per phase ($/lot) | [145500, 149940, 154513, 159223, 164074] | C3 §3(b) (after $2,500/lot sidewalk cut). Total 101 lots = $15,436,102. | |
| Takedown month (model month #) | [18, 24, 30, 36, 42] | Ph1 = Jan 2028 (Parker 10/8/26 estimate Q4-2027/Q1-2028; contract: 15 days after final plat notice). Each later phase on/before 6 months after the prior (C2 §6) -> fixed every 6 months regardless of sales. | ASSUMPTION: Ph1 date |
| Earnest money ($100K + $3,037,720) | $3,137,720 | C2 §2.1-2.2. Released to Seller at Seller land acquisition; secured by Seller note + 2nd DOT. Modeled as equity out in month 1 (Aug 2026). | Funding NOT confirmed |
| EM credit per lot at each closing ($/lot) | $31,066 | Intercreditor C3 Ex. C §5(c): bank takes 100% of lot proceeds after our $31,066/lot credit (x 101 = $3,137,666 ~ EM). | |
| TN transfer tax (% of price) | 0.4% | TN Code 67-4-409: $0.37 per $100 of consideration; buyer pays (C2 §8). | |
| Lot closing: title endorsements, recording, legal ($/lot) | $500 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (no BH data). Buyer pays all closing costs except base owner premium (C2 §8.2-8.5). | NEEDS ROBERT |
| Option revenue % of base (excl. basement) | 22.2% | Oasis Chattanooga div 106, 24 mo n=53: ($5,390,617 - 10 x $94,075) / $20,083,010 (same as Pine Ridge). | |
| Option direct cost % of option revenue | 47.8% | Oasis Chattanooga: ($2,791,956 - 10 x $66,287) / ($5,390,617 - 10 x $94,075). | |
| Lot premium ($/home avg) | $2,490 | Oasis Chattanooga avg lot premium (n=57). SI study assumes $10,000 (not used; upside). | |
| Incentive ($/home) | $10,000 | Strategic Insights study 6/22/26 recommendation (-$10,000). Pratt currently advertises $30K rate buydown (prattliving.com, 10/12/26). | |
| Basement share of lots | 10.0% | Parker review 10/8/26: ~10% basements. Lot-by-lot basement list not available. | NEEDS lot grading plan |
| Basement option price ($) | $94,075 | Oasis Chattanooga terrace/basement homes n=10. | |
| Basement added cost ($) | $66,287 | Oasis Chattanooga n=10 actual. | |
| Chattanooga hard-cost index vs company | 0.9022 | Oasis: Chattanooga $127.34/sf (n=56) / company $141.15/sf (n=645). | |
| Historical Chattanooga option cost / home excl. basement (deducted) | $40,171 | ($2,791,956 - 10 x $66,287) / 53 = $40,171. | |
| Historical Chattanooga terrace cost / home (deducted) | $11,837 | 10 x $66,287 / 56 = $11,837. | |
| Chattanooga actual all-in direct $/sf (benchmark) | 127.3 | Oasis Chattanooga n=56, closings 1/1/24-9/30/26. | |
| Permits & fees ($/home) | $2,080 | Oasis Hamilton Co actual (13 homes), same as Pine Ridge. | |
| Water meter + sewer tap ($/home) | $1,964 | WWTA residential sewer tapping fee $800 (WWTA fee worksheet) + water meter/hookup proxy $1,164 (Oasis Hamilton Co utility hookups, 7 homes). Eastside Utility water tap fee not published online. | Confirm Eastside UD meter fee |
| Internal commission % of revenue | 1.9% | Oasis Chattanooga GL 620 (n=57). | |
| Outside broker commission % (100% co-op) | 3.0% | Robert assumption 3% at 100% (Pine Ridge). | |
| Buyer closing-cost contributions ($/home) | $5,573 | Oasis Chattanooga (n=57). | |
| Warranty ($/home) | $2,922 | Pine Ridge method: GL 410 accrual $173,877 / 271 closings + Chattanooga warranty $2,280. | |
| Construction bonus ($/home) | $8,938 | Oasis GL 415106 Chattanooga (n=57). | |
| Construction cycle (months) | 5 | Oasis Chattanooga median build 150 days. | |
| Sale-to-start lag (months) | 4 | Oasis Chattanooga median sale-to-close 271 d less build 150 d. | |
| Sales open after Ph1 closing (months) | 2 | Pine Ridge permitting lag (Robert 10/9/26). No model home modeled. | Model home not modeled |
| Sales pace (homes/mo) | 2 | Strategic Insights 6/22/26: 2.0/mo (competitive avg 2.1/mo). Slower cases in sensitivity. | |
| HOA dues/assessments on lots we hold ($/lot/mo) | $250 | SI study HOA $250/mo. We fund all assessments and common-area maintenance (C2 §17). Charged on lots owned until home closing. | Budget not available |
| Property tax effective % of lot value / yr | 0.4% | Hamilton Co (Pine Ridge Property tax tab): 25% assessment x rate. Applied to lot price on lots held; WIP improvements not taxed (simplification). | |
| Erosion control + mowing on owned, unstarted lots ($/lot/mo) | $50 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (no BH data); we take over after each closing (C2 §19(f),(g)). | NEEDS estimate |
| Sidewalks + ADA ramps (total $) | $296,946 | ESTIMATE: 101 lots x 51 ft frontage x 1.15 common-area factor = 5,924 LF x 5 ft wide x $8.00/sf (4" concrete, ASSUMED unit cost) + 24 ADA ramps x $2,500 (ASSUMED). No bid. Spread pro rata by phase at takedown. Price cut received: $2,500/lot = $252,500. | NEEDS bid |
| Entry signage + landscaping ($) | $75,000 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (C2 §18 obligation; no estimate in files). At Ph1. | NEEDS estimate |
| Mail kiosks ($) | $31,500 | ASSUMPTION: 7 CBU units (16 boxes each for 101 lots + excluded homesite) x $4,500 installed incl. pad. At Ph1. | NEEDS estimate |
| HOA declaration / setup legal ($) | $15,000 | ASSUMPTION placeholder (C2 §17). At Ph1. | NEEDS estimate |
| Due diligence spent ($) | $0 | None documented. | Unknown |
| Incremental OH: supervision + sales payroll ($/home at closing) | $24,955 | Pine Ridge OVERHEAD_INC (Oasis R12M IS Office 106) / est. 22.7 Chattanooga closings/yr. | John's real 12-mo count needed |
| Division community overhead pool ($/yr) | $351,385 | Pine Ridge OVERHEAD_INC: ops wages/taxes, advertising, showroom, sales supplies + division G&A (Oasis R12M Office 106). | |
| Chattanooga closings / yr (estimate) | 22.72 | R12M revenue $13,781,324 / avg sale $606,522 = 22.7. | NEEDS John Allen's actual 12-month count |
| Land loan rate | 8.2% | Avila LOI 9/29/26: BofA prime 7.00% + 1.25% (floor 7.25%). | Avila LOI is for the BBGLOC; confirm Bradbury eligibility |
| Finished-lot advance LTC | 80.0% | Avila LOI. | |
| Finished-lot advance LTV (appraisal = price) | 75.0% | Avila LOI; appraisal unknown -> price. | |
| Unit fee (% of advance) | 1.0% | Avila LOI. | |
| Extension fee at 12 mo | 0.4% | Avila LOI. | |
| Extension fee at 18 mo | 0.5% | Avila LOI. Max term 24 mo / $5.25M sublimit: INFO ONLY (Robert 10/9/26), tested in Returns. | |
| ROI target | 35.0% | ROI target 35% (company trailing-12-month actual 33.7%). | |
| GM hurdle | 25.0% | Robert. |
Workbook: bradbury_place_model.xlsx (generated from the engine; Returns formulas recompute from the Cash flow tab; checks pass).
Data gaps & open items
- EM funding confirmation (John Allen / First Choice Title)
- Seller land acquisition status (assessor shows none as of 10/12/26)
- First Amendment 8/6/26 (missing)
- Intercreditor executed? EM released?
- Continuation Notice sent by 8/6/26?
- Lot-by-lot grading/basement list and final plat (101 vs 103)
- Floodplain overlap (FEMA NFHL not reachable headless)
- Zoning side setbacks for 51' lots (plan fit)
- Sidewalk / entry / kiosk / HOA bids
- On-lot site cost for pad-ready sewer lots (BH has no subdivision-lot actuals in Chattanooga)
- Eastside Utility water meter/tap fee
- Avila BBGLOC eligibility for Bradbury lots; appraisal
- John Allen's real 12-month Chattanooga closing count (overhead)
- Chattanooga-by-plan sales ranking; a BH plan in 2,400–3,000 sf that fits 51'
- MLS (GCAR Flex) for 37363: MFA blocks headless pulls, so we have no MLS list/close history or band absorption
- Model home not modeled; HOA budget not available
- Ph1 timing (Parker estimate only)
Sources
- C2: Contract of Sale 7/7/26 (DocuSign); C3: Second Amendment 8/20/26 incl. Ex. C intercreditor form. Summary: land-pipeline/contracts/bradbury-place.md.
- Strategic Insights, Bradbury Place SMS, Ooltewah TN, 6/22/26.
- Parker Steger review, 10/8/26 (parker-review.md); banking covenants §4.
- Oasis exports 10/9/26 (plan/division hard cost, options, selling, site categories); Plan_Matrix.xlsx; Pine Ridge v2 model (method and overhead).
- Hamilton County assessor Live_Parcels (deed sales and owner of record), pulled 10/12/26.
- prattliving.com and Trulia (Farms at Creekside specs), 10/12/26. WWTA fee worksheet. OSRM/OpenStreetMap.